1) I do a lot of work with the city and the Mayor’s vindictive,
2) I don’t believe in recalls,
3) The recall committee didn’t print their reasons on the ballot,
4) I don’t know whose running,
5) It will cost the city money,
6) I work for the Mayor.

The first thing to remember is that the recall petition isn’t even a vote to recall. It’s simply a request to formally put the question forward. It’s quite possible that if the recall petition drive is successful, we’ll have a special election and Tony Mack will win the special election. The recall committee and the 8000 or so people that have already signed think there’s enough doubt though to warrant a vote on the subject.

Therefore I’d like to address the reasons not to sign, one by one:

First “The Mayor is vindictive and he’ll hurt my business”. Well, that should tell you something. Aren’t we done with bullies in this society? If you’re not the one to stand up to a bully, then who is? And who’s to say the Mayor’s not bullying someone else that is less able to stand up to it than you. This is exactly the reason to put the Mayor’s status up for a vote.

Second, “I don’t believe in recalls”. What’s not to believe in? The NJ legislature has provided this very democratic method for correcting terrible mistakes. The fact is that a Mayor can do significant damage to a city through mismanagement without doing anything illegal. In four years that damage can become irreparable. That’s where Trenton is heading. If you think our Mayor has behaved ethically, is managing the city well and has a plan for its recovery, that’s one thing. If you don’t then not believing in recalls is like believing your city is doomed.

Third, “The recall committee didn’t print their reasons on the ballot”. I actually heard this. Hopefully, the committee has hand-outs. But if not, their web site is trentonrecall2011.wordpress.com. Let me also suggest kevin-moriarty.com.

Fourth, “I don’t know whose running”. You should venture out from under your rock. Jim Golden has announced. Eric Jackson may be in the race. I didn’t support Jackson in the first campaign because he was a re-hash of Doug Palmer. However, he was worlds more suitable than Mack and did run the public works department. Golden is interesting. He comes across as thoughtful and it doesn’t hurt that he’s run the police department. I’ve not met with Jim to discuss all of his policy thoughts but from I know so far, we’re on the same page.

Fifth, “It will cost the city money”. A recall election will cost about $100,000. That’s small change compared to the $2M in transitional aid we already didn’t get this year because the Mayor has consistently thumbed his nose at DCA. It’s small compared to the ground we’ve lost in our efforts to revitalize because we don’t have a plan, or the misspending of our budget that’s happened either because of fraud or, more importantly, because we don’t have a high quality set of department Directors in place. Trenton’s budget is $185,000,000 next year. $100,000 is a small price to pay to get a Mayor qualified to spend that amount to our mutual benefit.

Sixth, “I work for the Mayor”. If you do, I apologize on behalf of all voters. You probably shouldn’t sign unless you’re looking forward to getting to know “wrongful termination” lawyer George Doherty a lot better.

There’s hardly a reason not to sign the recall petition. It’s only a petition to request a vote. If during the special election Tony still winds up being the best choice, then so be it. But, if you think Trenton is on a terribly wrong course, then recall is the only rational answer.

Our Mayor and his housing director, Henrietta Owusu, don’t care about any of that. 

They’ve not only approved a giant HOPE VI government housing effort that is sucking up our most valuable land into a low income project but now they’ve approved the sale of 36 homes to a low income housing developer for $1 apiece.  This is the kind of project I’ve specifically warned them against.

Furthermore, after some careful sleuthing by a citizen activist it turns out the developer is engaging in “Pay to Play” with the Mayor.

Ms. Owusu has now officially made an enemy.  Her job is revitalizing Trenton and she doesn’t know what she’s doing and in fact is doing the opposite.  We don’t really need to fire her, just put her in a position where she can do no more harm.  I recommend City Council not approving her for any new position.  The Mayor is a more difficult situation. 

At some point activists need to stop trying to play nice and get mean.  I don’t know how long I can stay relatively nice.

More articles about this mess:

• Kevin Moriarty’s Blog: You Can’t Make This Stuff Up
• Trentonian Article #1: In Trenton, 36 houses or lots to sell for $1 each
• Trentonian Article (LA Parker):  36 for $36 is good deal for developer, bad news for Trenton
• Trenton Times Article:  Questions surround $6,000 campaign donation to Mack
• My previous blog on this: Discipline and Focus – Learning to say “NO”
• Trentonian Article #3:  Trenton Mayor Tony Mack’s campaign got $6,000 from outfit linked to developer in $36 land deal (DOCUMENTS)

Neither of our candidates, Manny Segura or Tony Mack have a real plan for Trenton.  They both talk revitalization gibberish so it’s really a bit of a ugly toss-up from a policy perspective. 

Both want to go begging to the state for more money without offering anything in return.  If asked, both oppose the water sale even though they don’t have a good reason why.  Both would support the new HOPE VI project at Miller Homes even though they have no idea whether or not it will have a positive economic impact.  Both talk about selling off Trenton’s foreclosed homes though they have no clue as to how or whether it will matter.

If there’s no real difference between the candidates, then how can voters make their choice?

Voters need to consider the ethical character and financial motivations for Segura and Mack.

Consider Segura who wants no financial commitment from Trenton.  He’s on full disability and therefore says he won’t take a salary.  Ok, great but how can a person on full disability perform a demanding full time job like being mayor.  Mr. Segura won’t talk about this even when asked point blank.  A reasonable person would think he’s hiding something.   

So how will Mr. Segura make a buck as mayor?

Turns out he’s taken a big pile of money in the form of campaign contributions from politicians in North Jersey.  He won’t explain why those politicians felt so generous to him so here’s a guess.  As mayor of Trenton,  Mr. Segura will be in control of nearly $500M in municipal and school spending.  Let’s say contracts happened to go to companies friendly with those same North Jersey politicians.  And in return, those companies made generous donations to the same politicians.  How would we ever detect this form of pay to play?  Is this just a wild allegation?  Perhaps;  but it makes sense and since Manny won’t explain himself and say anything different, we have to go with the most likely story.

Now let’s turn to Tony Mack. 

Tony is apparently hard up for cash.  That by itself is no crime and we can only hope that he finds better financial times.  However, he shouldn’t be doing it on the backs, or behind the backs, of Trenton residents.

Mack owes back property taxes which again wouldn’t be a serious problem, except that he’s running for the job of chief tax collector.  It’s at least a conflict of interest for a mayor of the city to be in charge of foreclosing on his own house. 

So here’s a guy with some serious financial problems and he’s running for mayor, which is a very expensive proposition.  It seems that desperate times call for desperate measures.  Enter Jo Jo Giorgianni. 

Jo Jo is famous in Trenton as the quarter ton rapist.  There’s a long saga from back in the 1980’s where he was convicted for raping a 14 year old girl.  Furthermore, if you ask long time Trenton residents, he’s also been connected to other types of illicit activity. Why does this matter? 

Turns out, Jo Jo is a major contributor to Tony Mack’s campaign.  Election records show that he has donated $2600 (the maximum allowed).  In addition, it is widely rumored that the $20,000 Tony loaned to the campaign actually came from Jo Jo.  It couldn’t have come from Tony because he owes the back taxes, right?

So what does Jo Jo want for all that money?

Tony wouldn’t answer that.  He won’t address the charges.  We can only assume the worst.

Here’s the summary.

One candidate is defrauding the government and owes favors to North Jersey politicians.  The other candidate owes back taxes and owes favors to a convicted rapist.  With only two days to the election and no other options, why bring all this up?

The papers have let us down by not explaining these issues and the candidates have done nothing to explain themselves (I personally asked both candidates to address the allegations).  Somebody needs to let the people know what kind of candidates they’re voting for.  Voters have a difficult moral choice to make.   

As for me, Reinvent Trenton advises on revitalization policy not moral judgments.   You’re on your own.

However, I live in Trenton and own enough property so that high taxes and declining value could be a substantial economic blow.  I am not alone in this precarious situation.  Every home and building owner in Trenton is at risk as our city’s budget comes closer to falling into the financial abyss.

I’ve listened to the candidates and just don’t hear a serious “by the numbers” explanation of how they think we can rescue ourselves.  Instead, I hear a lot of blame being laid on the State.

I also know that many of our candidates have been in public life for many years but have never jumped up and down screaming about the fact that we were so dependent on the State.  Even now, several of the candidates are asking for votes so they can do more for the poor citizens of Trenton.  We’re sinking, as a city, and yet there are candidates talking about new social programs.

There are candidates who either believe or know that citizens want to hear, “that fixing the schools will revitalize Trenton”.  That notion is absurd and tells me that I’m listening to a “Know Nothing”  politician.  In order to magically fix the schools, we’d have to start with the young kids and put them into some magical environment that hasn’t even been invented, wait 12 years, and then perhaps we’d have a graduation rate worth bragging about.  It could be decades before Trenton’s schools are better than surrounding suburbs.  Nobody moves to a city for the schools that are “almost as good”.  Trenton schools need to be “as good, or better”, but we can’t make that happen in time to save our city.

We need a no-nonsense, and dare I say pragmatic (another word for Republican) approach to our problem.  We need a “Bull in the China shop” much like Chris Christie has become for NJ.  We need to do the opposite of what we’ve been doing in Trenton for the past 20 years.

We don’t need balance, we need imbalance.  Trenton has gone out of its way to be attractive to the poor for quite some time and has done little to attract middle class and high income residents.  We’re going to have to change that balance.  We’re actually going to have to find a way to appeal to people with disposable income and lots of them.

As I look at the candidates and at myself,  I’ve come to the conclusion that I have something to offer Trenton.  As a Management Consultant, my job is often to help organizations improve and to do the best things first.  We help our clients manage by the numbers.  As a volunteer in Trenton, I find myself drawn towards the challenging problem of urban revitalization.  It’s one of the great challenges of our time and I want to be a part of meeting that challenge.  ReinventTrenton.com is all about that as is TrentonLofts.com and FixTrentonsBudget.com.

Running for mayor is a thankless job and being mayor would involve some personal and financial pain for me and Michelle (Michelle doesn’t like the idea).  However, if voters look around and decide they just can’t tie their futures to any of the existing candidates and would prefer to take the opposite approach, I will serve.  Probably only for one term, but I’d serve long enough to give the opposite approach a chance to take shape.

I understand that many Trentonians have been fed a diet of rhetoric on revitalization over the years and I’ve written quite a bit to debunk much of it. But, just so there aren’t any surprises, a few of the ingredients a Dodson administration include are listed below.  If you can’t depart with the notion that these sacred cows need to be cast out, then don’t vote for me:

• Create and institutionalize a meaningful budget process
• Reassess on a 5 year cycle and adjust our tax rate accordingly
• Lift the residency requirement for all city workers (we need the best minds possible on the case)
• Call in outside law enforcement support to augment our police
• Reinvent our city processes to enable our staff to have a bigger impact for less
• Make every aspect of Trenton the MOST business and development friendly in the US
• No support at all for subsidized, deed restricted, housing
• Negotiate a fair deal with the State, to gradually get us off of state aid
• Lobby, maybe through the US Justice Dept., for integration of schools in Mercer County and NJ (that equates to busing)

For those that have read my blog over the years, none of this is new.  I just want to make it clear that my firm belief is that protecting the above “sacred cows” is in the way of Trenton’s progress.  Adopting the above is the “opposite” of what we’ve been doing and the “opposite” of the positions for many of the current candidates.

In the end, it’s the voters choice. If called I’d serve and would love the challenge.

The administration officially proposed a budget that raises property taxes by almost 20% which would make Trenton’s rate by far the highest in NJ.

The Mayor spoke first.  Let me summarize.

• The State doesn’t give us enough money given that they occupy a lot of land in Trenton
• The national economy is bad
• The petitioners that are fighting to have a public referendum on the sale of the suburban portion of Trenton Water Works are blocking a fix to the budget.

City Council asked a few questions mainly

• Why don’t you give us a 5 year plan – Annette Lartigue
• I’m not happy about this – Manny “The Grandstand” Segura

I take exception that our situation has been beyond our control

• The city’s budget and economy has been a problem for years.  Yet, as Ms. Lartigue suggests, there’s never been a real plan to fix it.  I wish she’d demanded it 5 years ago. I pointed out to Council and the admin two years ago that a minor retrenchment in state funding would cause a severe tax hike.  Nothing happened.
• It’s always been the case that the economy might go south, yet during the boom years our Mayor was literally encouraging sub prime loans in Trenton.
• The Mayor and City Council did the wrong thing by not letting the Water Works sale go to a vote, and now it’s backfired.  What were they afraid of?

The administration is guilty here but Council has blame; as they have an obligation to be guardians of our budget.

• At any point, they could have forced the issue of a 5 year plan for revitalization.
• At any point, they could have appointed a citizen’s commission (which might have included the petitioners) to review the budget and recommend fixes.
• At any point, they could have asked the administration, who claims they’ve been planning to sell the Water Works for 10 years, to sell the idea to the public.

Council did none of these things until last night (2/23/2010), just as the citizenry is about to be very angry about a catastrophic tax increase one month before an election.  An election, by the way, which finds three of the council members running for mayor and everyone else leaving office.

I’m not the only one that feels let down.  However, I’m not giving up quite yet and I have a plan.

I am forming a citizens group to review the Trenton budget and develop a way forward. I ask economically-minded citizens to get involved by emailing me at dan@trentonlofts.com.

We won’t wait for approval, rather we’ll band together to lobby for a revitalization minded budget that works to not just cut services to avoid bankruptcy, but serves to make Trenton great again. I’m busy and wish I didn’t have to do this but like many Trentonians, my property tax bill will for the first time be higher than my mortgage.  What’s worse, this structural deficit and resulting tax policy will push away investment in Trenton, which will further deflate the value of my property.

A group of citizens is doing this in Princeton and is having some effect.

I can’t afford not to bring my business background to bear on this problem.  I hope thoughtful Trentonians will join me.

We’ll review the budget, decide what’s important for investment and what should be cut.  We’ll create our own 5 year strategy. Then we’ll present our recommendations VERY publically.  If enough of Trenton’s citizens can help, we’ll be a formidable force.  Hopefully, the administration and council will welcome our help.

While our elected officials should be accountable for our economic problems, we’re all to blame.  Let’s take our role as citizens seriously and fix this.

Ask any Trenton native and they’ll tell you how proud they are of the city, “I’m Trenton Proud”.

What?

We’ve done such a great job running the place that our industry has left town, our education level is among the lowest in the state and we’re on the verge of bankruptcy.  Yea for us!

And now here come the candidates.

You’d think running on Trenton’s record of achievement and their role in it would be a dubious strategy.  But you’d be wrong.

The very first words on candidate Eric Jackson’s web site are, “Born and raised in Trenton ….”.  He’s as much as saying yep I’ve been part of this mess all along.

Keith Hamilton takes a curious nostalgic view.  The first words on his site are, “Keith grew up in Trenton, making him a part of its past.”  Candidate Hamilton is directly linking himself to our past failures.

Alex Brown holds out to the end of his Mayoral pitch to provide his Trenton bonafides, “As a life long resident of Trenton and a graduate of Trenton Central High School”.  Of course Brown may have bigger issues if he’s running on his record as a school board member of the under-performing Trenton School System.

In a refreshing respite from the Trentonitis that infects our municipal elections, candidates Pintella, Lartigue and Mack have chosen to refrain from playing the “born and bred” card.  Instead their web sites deal mostly with their positions on issues.  Whether or not you agree with them you’ve got to respect a candidate who doesn’t resort to nativism in a potentially divisive campaign season.

Candidates Segura (not born and bred), Weeden (also not born and bred), Watson (not born and bred), Harmon (born and bred) and Fuller (nobody is certain of his origin) unfortunately don’t have web sites preferring to remain mysterious.

So what’s really wrong with “born and bred” as a campaign platform?  What harm can there be in making this accident of biology and geography central parts of the stump speech?

In a campaign, candidate’s messages have meaning.

• When they make a virtue out of one thing, they imply its opposite is a vice.
• When they brag about a quality they possess, they are saying those without said quality are lesser in stature.

It came up in the 2006 election cycle when Councilman Coston was attacked for his relatively short eight years of Trenton residency.

It’s as if the candidate is saying, “The other guy is no good because he wasn’t born here”.  By extension, they’re also saying that every newcomer to Trenton is inferior due to the unfortunate circumstances of his/her birth city.

As one young native Trentonian pointed out on a recent FB discussion on the subject:

“Hell, we have had homegrown folks (the Mayor and most of City Council were born and raised in Trenton) running this city into the ground for the last 20 years and look where it has gotten us”

It seems a bit counter-intuitive to run on “Born & Bred” as a strength unless you had another message in mind.

“Born and bred” divides Trentonians into us and them.  It’s code to other Trenton natives that newcomers can’t be trusted.  “All those sneaky “carpetbaggers”, they’ve moved here to take advantage of you.  Stick with me and we’ll show them”

So who is the code language aimed at?  Me, for one.  I’ve been here only nine years.  Similarly it refers to all of the other new Trentonians that have invested in neighborhoods like Mill Hill, Hiltonia, Glen Afton, Cadwalader Heights and Trenton Ferry.  Trenton’s new middle class are easy targets.

But who else?  Well, a big majority of Trenton’s various Hispanic communities weren’t born here.  They’re foreigners for gosh sake!  Just like in Martin Scorsese’s “Gangs of New York”, nativist candidates are creating a sense of us versus them. It’s an ugly political tactic we see playing out in national politics as well.

Most importantly the “born and bred” crowd is suggesting that non-native candidates like Segura and Weeden are simply unqualified because they didn’t spend their formative years watching Trenton decline.

Some might think this doesn’t matter much.  After all don’t we have bigger issues?  We do, but let’s not continue to brand newcomers as outsiders.  It’s important to Trenton’s revitalization that it be perceived as a place where you can quickly put down roots and be part of the community.  Creating an extra qualification for inclusion in the inner circle of city life is counter to the objective of growing the city.

I’m sure the apologists and campaign workers for the candidates will say, “they’re just being proud of their heritage”.  I say, words have meaning.

Show your pride with campaign platforms that will make a difference.  Don’t beat us poor unfortunate non-native voters over the head with the superiority of your birth pedigree.

Taxation is a major tool of public policy. It shapes our lives whether we know it or not. We reward home ownership with the mortgage deduction. We keep fuel taxes low relative to other countries because we want to prop up interstate commerce. We tax the rich at higher rates in order to redistribute the wealth.

When the modern US tax code was shaped, cities were perceived to be dirty and propping up the auto industry was important. Sixty years later the US is full of single family homes in suburban sprawl with high debt to income ratios vs. other countries.

Trenton’s budget is mostly spent on basic services. It’s hamstrung in that Police, Fire, public works, debt service and schools make up close to 75% of our total spending. This leaves a relatively small amount with which to spend on policy choices that might affect revitalization and taxation as the only powerful tool in our revitalization arsenal.

Trenton’s tax rate is among the highest (top 10%) in NJ. In 2008 (the latest NJDCA data), Trenton’s effective tax rate (2.639%) is the 43^rd highest among 566 taxing municipalities in New Jersey.

The effective tax rate is the tax compared to the actual property value rather than the assessed value which is set artificially low in most towns.

As an example the city might legislate a 4% tax rate. But that rate is applied to the assessed value of a home. Assume a home is worth $100,000. The assessed value is often kept lower (either by custom or because recent assessments haven’t been done). Let’s say the assessed value is $60,000 (a typical discount in Trenton). Then the tax would be $2400. The effective tax rate would be $2400 / $100,000 = 2.4%.

Comparing the effective rate rather than the dollar amount allows us to compare apples to apples. For instance, people in Princeton might say their taxes are high (their effective rate is 1.69%) but they aren’t. A home assessed at $200,000 in Princeton would yield property taxes of $3380 but the same home in Trenton (our effective rate is 2.639%) would yield a whopping $5278.

It’s true that homes in Princeton are more expensive than Trenton. However it’s also true that while taxes on a $500,000 home in Princeton would be expensive, they would be crushing in Trenton.

Our high tax rate is a deterrent to investment in the city and furthermore our high taxes suppress home values and vice versa.

Trenton has systemic chronic budget shortfalls. Our combined municipal and school budget is around $400M per year. Of that, Trentonians pay only around $56M. If the State or Federal money that funds 75% of our expenses dries up (as it currently is), Trentonians will face either massive tax increases or massive decreases in services (see Trenton’s budget is in worse shape than you think).

Because Trenton has continued to lose residents and failed to attract new ratables and because the State and Federal governments are no longer providing the same levels of aid, Trenton is in a budget crisis. Estimates are that we may face shortfalls as large as $20M within two years.

We’ll never overcome this chronic problem unless we find a way to attract new ratables. We’re not talking 10 or 100 units, Trenton needs to grow by over 50%.

Since 1999, Trenton’s ratables have gone up .5% per year. Meanwhile, the average for NJ cities has risen 7.7%. While Trenton has had an increase (as the Mayor correctly claims) it is less than inflation and far behind our neighbors. This lack of economic growth explains the yearly increase in our tax rate of almost 2% per year over the same period. (Source: NJDCA)

Our taxes are unfair and don’t reward investment. All property taxes in NJ are based on the value of the property being taxed. This provides a disincentive to invest in property improvement, the very thing that cities like Trenton need. We are structurally crippling revitalization.

Cities put a band-aid on the problem by abating taxes or offering developers PILOTS that allow them to avoid paying property tax. However, this is unfair to those who are paying full freight.

Furthermore, taxation in Trenton is unfair because assessments of property values are not done regularly. There are properties in Trenton that have not been reassessed in over 10 years. This is unfair to newcomers whose properties are automatically reassessed at purchase time. Newcomers are subsidizing long time residents. This is another disincentive to attracting new residents when we need them most.

How can Trenton’s tax system lead to revitalization?

Reinvent the property tax system to align with a forward looking strategy.

Let’s fix the government policy that affects every current and future Trenton resident the most: taxes. Let’s reward dense urban development rather than punish it. Let’s welcome new residents with the same tax rates as long time residents. And finally, let’s simplify the tax structure and publish it (and the budget) on the City’s website for all to see.

This proposal is meant to be revenue neutral. The subject of how much tax we need to collect is very different and indeed less important than how we collect it.

The Reinvent Trenton tax plan proposes to

• raise assessed values,
• lower the tax rate,
• shift tax burden to owners of vacant land and
• reward dense “energy efficient” development.

Land based taxes will stimulate investment. Every Trentonian will agree that vacant property is an important problem. Yet we’ve done nothing about it.

Owning vacant land year after year is damaging to the value of property around it and invites criminal activity that seeks out unlit and unwatched shadows.

So why would a property owner not develop the land? Because they can get away with it and speculate that something will happen to increase its value without their having to invest a dime. The answer is nothing will happen and the vacant property prevents it. Because property tax is based on the value of the property and a vacant property has little value, the owner’s tax burden is low. So the owner pays little and destroys value around him at the same time.

Instead let’s shift our tax burden to these negligent property owners. We can tax all property owners a land tax based on the acreage they own. We would do this byassigning, say 20% of the tax burden to a land tax and reducing the property value tax accordingly. This works out to about $420 per parcel of land in Trenton (divide 20% of tha tax bill by the 24,000 parcels of land in town). Existing homeowners will be made whole by decreasing their property tax rate from 4.4% to closer to 2.3% as in the example below

Pre-existing Homes*	Today		Reformed
Trenton‘s Average House Value		$104,066		$104,066
Average Assessment	60%	$62,439.60	100%	$104,066
Land Tax				$ 420
Property Value Tax	4.4%	$2,747.34	2.3%	$2,393.52
Total Tax		$2,747.34		$2,813.52.0
Effective Tax Rate		2.64%		2.70%

* 2008 numbers from NJDCA

With a new land tax speculators won’t make out so well. A vacant land owner with a $10,000 piece of land would pay about $260 a year today to keep taxes current. With the land tax in place that would be more than doubled to almost $650. Importantly, that land owner would have an effective tax rate much higher than the city average and would be incented to either sell or develop the land.

Vacant Land	Today		Reformed
Trenton‘s Average Lot Value		$10,000		$10,000
Average Assessment	60%	$6,000	100%	$10,000
Land Tax				$ 420
Property Value Tax	4.4%	$264	2.3%	$230
Total Tax		$264		$650
Effective Tax Rate		2.64%		6.5%

Many Trenton residents complain that the city itself holds too many vacant properties. With the new tax structure in place, there would be a much greater incentive for the city to sell or even give away its inventory of property in order to generate land tax revenues (see The case for dumping city owned property).

With the land tax in place there will less need for abatements as new construction will be taxed at a much lower rate. The new 2.3% would be similar to Hamilton’s rate, rather than Trenton’s current 4.4% current rate.

Fairly distribute the tax burden. While we’re revamping our tax system it’s only fair to make the city’s assessments current. Trenton’s long time residents need to pay their fair share. While reassessment will naturally raise taxes, it should also lead to an overall reduced tax rate. In theory, if 95% of homes haven’t been reassessed in 10 years, then even a 100% increase in home value would lead to a tax increase of only 5%. This assumes the budget stays constant and the tax rate decreases by 50%.

Having all Trentonians on the same tax payment plan is only fair and again will serve to incent immigration to Trenton. Trenton can quickly become a tax-friendly city for newcomers if we’re all paying the same rate.

Make budgets and taxes transparent

Finally, a sure way to keep taxes and budget in control is to make sure it’s easy for the voting public to see both. Today that is not the case. Trenton’s current tax rate is not on the city’s website, nor is access to the current property tax database. Citizens and activists have to search 3^rd party websites for information about Trenton’s finances. The first step to revitalization is transparency (see Trenton as a Turnaround Opportunity).

With the combination of a land tax, property value tax, reassessment and transparency: Trenton can use its most powerful power tool, taxation, to revitalize the economy.

Previously, I wrote about the cause and effect of a city’s crime level and it’s immigration level ( How Crime Affects Trenton). However, this is a very small part of the story. First, we have to agree on what it is about a city that we’d like to improve. In general, the best measure of a city’s health is its per capita income. Cities with high crime rates have low per capita incomes and vice-a-versa (The Economics of Crime).

But do we know how crime and more importantly crime fighting is related to the job of increasing per capita income (CPI)?

This is the question a competent Mayor, Police Director and Budget Director should be able to answer. They should be well versed on the linkage between the elements of our city budget and the city’s eventual success, especially the crime fighting budget.

I’ll help by framing the questions, but we need thoughtful criminal scientists and economists working on the problem.

The following graphic illustrates the linkages we need to understand.

Urban Dynamics and the Crime Budget

First, what are the best investments a city can make to raise CPI?

• Economic development?
• Lower taxes?
• More inspections?
• Better public works?
• Crime fighting?

What level of crime fighting investment is “break even”

• If increasing crime fighting is not the best investment …
• what level is needed to not lose ground?

What is the optimum balance of spending?

• More policing to generate more arrests?
• More prisons to hold inmates longer?
• More prosecutors and judges to increase the conviction rate?

The answers on spending aren’t obvious.

• There is some economic evidence that longer sentences are an important aspect of crime fighting.
• Long sentences have a deterrent affect on other criminals
• They also have a multiplying affect on prevention in that the convicted criminal commits many crimes for every one he’s arrested for.
• More is better, but what’s the best balance among tactics and other investments a city can make?
  

What are the policy changes that we should pursue?

• Given that longer sentences have a profound affect on crime rates, should we seek power to appoint tougher judges?
• Should we push for harsher punishments for first time offenders?
• Should we do more to publicize the efficacy of judges and prosecutors in keeping us safe?

There is research that helps to guide the development of policy and budget in this area. Given that most of Trenton’s budget is spent on crime fighting, those that are responsible for it, should feel obligated to answer the above questions and provide research citings.

Perhaps some of my city critic colleagues that attend more council meetings than I am able to, will help ask the tough questions.

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