The Hispanic vote, if there is such a block, could be split three ways. Carlos Avilla is likely the front runner in this group having received Coston’s endorsement and picking up some organization support. Carlos is a nice guy but seems to want to please everybody and will therefore please nobody at all.

In the Jersey St. debate he quoted President Kennedy’s speech about not asking what your country can do for you, and thirty minutes later proceeded to pander to a single mother by telling her what he and the city could do for her. Which is it Carlos?

His economic policy is no different than Trenton’s failed approach for the last 20 years. He has shown bad economic judgment in several choices of videos to feature on his web site. None of his guest speakers have prescribed sensible approaches to urban revitalization. My fear about Carlos is that while he says he’ll seek out good ideas, he won’t recognize them when they’re right in front of him.

Evelyn Deleon, as I’ve written before, seems a nice and earnest person but simply has a difficult time expressing herself and staying on point. This was evident both in the first candidate debate on Jersey St., then on LA Parker’s radio debate and in her posting on reinventtrenton.com. Deliberations in City Council must be held with both clear thinking and clear speech. Evelyn doesn’t meet this qualification.

Juan Martinez was on the wrong side of the failed Leewood Development project that would have destroyed the character of South Trenton long after the incumbent politicians withdrew their support. Juan’s ideas about economic development are rooted in the 70s making him the dangerous choice for the South Ward.

George Muschal just doesn’t seem to have his head in the game. He doesn’t come across as the kind of innovative thinker we need on Council. His low point was when he expressed his displeasure over my questioning him about the city budget. He didn’t appear to have any awareness about the budget and questioned the veracity of my assertions about it. I can’t abide this kind of ignorance about the most important issue in our city.

Now for the tough part.

Pat Stewart is well known to me and is a person whom I respect. I’ve discussed the city and its revitalization many times with Pat and find that her views are basically sound. Pat would be a safe choice for the South Ward Council seat. She understands the workings of city government and would be a vote of reason.

However Stewart has failed to do two things critical for a councilperson in 2010. She has not posted a web site. A simple web presence is an important way to communicate a candidate’s views and to maintain transparency. Furthermore she’s failed to communicate a vibrant vision for Trenton.  We need vision from the South Ward as it’s quite possible we won’t get it from the other wards or city hall. I won’t be disappointed with having Pat on Council but I can’t endorse her.

This brings me to my endorsement of Paul Harris. I know more people who’ve been rubbed the wrong way by Paul than support him so I definitely feel like I’m out on a limb with my support. However, I have talked with Paul about his views and have come to believe that we share a basic philosophy.

• Trentonians are responsible for fixing their own fiscal mess.
• We can be a great city and can be Mercer County’s downtown.
• Residential development is the path to revitalization and the city has no business holding on to vacant property.
• Crime fighting should be part of a broader economic development strategy.

Paul is bright, earnest and energetic. He’s ambitious and quite frankly I think that’s what bothers folks. Paul will need to temper this but I am sure the ambition to make Trenton great again is what’s needed in government. His vision is for us to be a “shining city on the hill” not a last resort for the people with no choices. He will welcome new residents with disposable income rather than reject them out of jealousy.

The politicians who ramble on about how much they will do for you aren’t the kind of councilpersons we need now. We need someone who understands Council, the budget and the big picture on revitalization. We don’t need another social worker on Council rather we need to understand that Trenton must compete in a competitive world. We need thoughtful people who can think for themselves. We need a person who is using the web effectively to communicate with his constituents. We need energy directed at the right things, not candidates that are wedded to the social programs that have dominated urban politics throughout Trenton’s decline.

Paul Harris has the endorsement and support of ReinventTrenton.com.

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Political representation of Trenton’s South Ward was snatched from the hands of Trenton’s political machine three years ago by a smart and energetic Baptist minister.  Reverend Coston was well educated, well read and well …. basically a decent guy.

Coston did much to initiate the Ward’s political renaissance through his efforts in organizing opposition to two ill-considered government funded housing projects in 2004.  HUD’s Hope VI would have replaced the old Kearny homes project with another one and Leewood Village would have bulldozed 8 blocks of the South Ward in order to make room for subsidized fake colonial townhouses.  Coston became president of the Lamberton Historic District Committee (LHDC) which hosted meetings that regularly drew 300 residents to the protests.

I bring up this bit of South Ward history to point to both what’s needed and what’s lacking in the crop of candidates hoping to fill Coston’s now vacated council spot.

First, organizing the LHDC was like herding cats.  You couldn’t just count on a group of like minded friends.  We need a candidate who can at least talk to different constituencies.  I’m not convinced any of the current candidates can do that.

Second, we need a candidate with the mental wherewithal to think through complex issues.  They need to know how to force the administration to use the budget, not just for survival, but for revitalization. So far, none of the candidates have demonstrated an ability to do that.  None of them having written platform pieces that show depth in thinking.

Third, we need a candidate that moves the level of community communication forward.  Coston’s southtrenton.com web site was widely read across the city and made Coston the leading voice amongst all 7 council people.  However useful Coston’s site was though, it was reflective of a bare minimum when compared to council people in other cities.  As a group, this year’s South Ward candidates are ahead of web efforts from the last election cycle.  Yet, none of this year’s sites approach Coston’s for depth and breadth of content.

The citizens of the South Ward have set the bar high for themselves and the rest of us hope they can repeat their wisdom from three years ago.

The first South Ward debate (sponsored by the Jersey St. Civic Association) is over now and we’ve had our first chance to compare the candidates across a good set of questions from the public.  Here are my initial thoughts though I’m not quite prepared to endorse any one candidate.  I’m waiting (not too much longer) for them to publish position papers.

Paul Harris

Web Site: http://paulharrisjr.net/

Paul appears to have a good command of many of the details involved in running the city.  He’s earnest sounding and was the best spoken of the 5 candidates at last night’s debate.

However, while Paul laments the looming structural deficit and suggests several approaches for spreading the suffering around, he doesn’t get close to suggesting a permanent way out of this mess.  The other knock on Paul is that many of his tactical thoughts appear to be wishful thinking.  My specific complaint is that he hasn’t so far laid out a high level vision and measurable goals.  Paul also seems a bit caught up in the race.  He’s young and maybe I can’t blame him.

Carlos Avila

Web Site: http://carlosavila2010.com/

Carlos is a polished young man and did a good job of expressing a high level set of ideals. He also has Rev. Coston’s backing which does mean something to me. He recognizes the need to attract middle and high income residents to Trenton, which is something that the other candidates didn’t grasp at all (Ms. Stewart grasps it she just didn’t say it clearly).

My knock on Carlos is that he is a bit duplicitous. In one moment he “Asks not what Trenton can for you” and in the next he’s spelling out his agenda to support a single mother in the audience who felt that government owed her something. You can only have it one way. Carlos seems more social worker than pragmatic Trenton turnaround man. He didn’t have any thoughts on righting Trenton’s ship, but then neither did the others.

Pat Stewart

Web Site: http://www.stewartforcouncil.com/ (not yet functioning)

I know Pat best of any of the candidates and first knew from her participation in LHDC and opposing Leewood. Since then she’s the only one of the South Ward candidates that I see in a broad range of civic activities.  Pat was a regular at our Urban Studies group which really should have been required for all council members and candidates.

Pat didn’t come across very strongly in the debate though.  And though she most closely aligned with my thinking on revitalization, she didn’t express it in an appealing way.

George Muschal

Web Site: http://muschal.nhpress.net/ (minimal content)

Mr. Muschal is a retired police officer who believes there is rampant corruption in the department. If this is the case then the best public service he could provide is in an oversight role reporting to the Mayor and police director.

However, for city council we should prefer to have a candidate that is more aware of the functions of our city. When I asked him about the budget and set up the question by referencing current budget numbers, he seemed offended that I would suggest he have an opinion and an approach to dealing with the budget issue. What a terrible attitude. He apparently is not aware of the approximate size of the city’s budget (he questioned the veracity of my figures) even though the city’s high level budget is widely distributed. It also proves that he’s never read this blog. I shouldn’t be too hurt, he’s probably not read any of the other numerous and thoughtful Trenton blogs either.

Evelyn Deleon

Web Site: ????

Evelyn relishes her role in sticking up for people in the neighborhood. I remember her taking that attitude in the fight against Leewood. She correctly believed that Latino and older residents were being taken advantage of by Leewood, with the implicit support of the administration. She seems a nice woman.

The problem is I just can’t understand her. It’s not just a language thing as her thoughts seem a bit jumbled as well. Furthermore, out of the 8-10 questions asked last night she might have directly answered 3 of them. Ms. Deleon seemed to wander around in her comments always coming back to “being a committee person” and “going to city council to complain”. It’s great having this kind of advocate but perhaps not in city council

Juan Martinez

Web Site: ????

Juan didn’t show up at the debate. One thing I do know about him though was that back during the Leewood controversy he was a paid hack for the developer. But before I go on I should remember that if you can’t anything good about someone, don’t say anything at all.

South Ward election observers gathered for post debate beers were underwhelmed with the candidates. Their attitudes would have been lifted if their real concerns about the candidates’ viability had been addressed:

• How our candidates think about the big issues of the day (Leewood, the Water Works sale, RCAs and the budget crisis) is important.
• Were their comments angry rhetoric? Re-tread platitudes?
• Do they have a command of the data?
• Do they have an end goal for the city in mind?
• Was there a notion of strategy in their approach towards revitalization?
• Were they consistent in their approach to governing?

None of the five candidates knocked it out of the park at the Sept. 8 debate. However, Mr. Avilla and Mr. Harris seemed to best demonstrate an even keeled approach towards discussing the questions asked.

I’ve taken the opportunity to restate the debate here.  It’s a useful discussion for policymakers and I thank Jim Coston for being the kind of Councilman that is open to challenging his own assumptions.

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Mr. Coston’s June 17^th blog on income distribution (southtrenton.com)

I had the opportunity to discuss Trenton with its resident sociologist last week. The census is a once a decade endeavor. The 2000 data is out of date. It will get updated next year.

In the mean time, some very insightful and statistically sound community surveys have taken place. Their results are startling.

Within the past few years, Trenton’s upper class, those defined as making greater than $75,000/year, has risen by 60%. This is due in some part to the State’s Live Where You Work program. It may also be due to a societal shift toward urban living. This is, by and large, good news for Trenton. It raises our average educational level. It increases the amount of disposable income in the City. Good news for the most part.

However, there was bad news. Trenton’s middle class continues to shrink. The families earning between $30,000 and $75,000 decreased by a high percentage. Increasing property taxes, concerns about public education and other housing opportunities account for some of this decline.

The danger moving forward is that Trenton will become stratified between the upper class and the lower class, the haves and the have nots.

Trenton‘s overall population has dropped. The 2000 census put us at 85,000. The community survey posited 75,000. The South Ward is the only ward in the city with population growth; this growth is concentrated in children under the age of 7. The rest of the city is shrinking.

A declining population means less $ for schools, less federal $ for the City and less voting power.

Is there a mechanism to change these trends? Excellent question. The primary task, I suspect, for the next administration will be to build up Trenton’s middle class. The middle class enables mixed income neighborhoods. The middle class is invested in public schools and education. Trenton needs to become a place where the middle class wants to live.

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Dan’s reaction to the blog was as follows

Jim, Your “class” analysis from June 17^th is a bit skewed.

I understand that you use $75K as the line between middle and upper class with tongue in cheek.  However, the distinction between what upper class really means “is” the point.

What spread or average of economic power amongst its citizens, does Trenton actually need in order to be a functioning city?

• This is difficult math and I’ve been working on it for the past several weeks without conclusion.
• However, we can presume that “average” per capita income for the state of NJ is a good guess.
• I’ve written about this before when I posited the goal of being as wealthy Clifton, NJ (a very average city).

http://www.trentonspace.com/1editorialbody.lasso?-token.folder=comm/2004/08/01&-token.story=41397.112115&-token.subpub=

I came to the conclusion that Trenton would have to absorb 16.5 x the population of relatively affluent Lambertville in order to get near the NJ average.  When I wrote the article, Lambertville had a per capita income of around $35K which translates into about $80K in per household income.

The reality is that Trenton doesn’t have “any” rich people (not really rich anyway) and very few ( under 20) real upper income citizens using the Obama definition of $250K/year.  An average NJ city would have a population distribution that includes all income ranges not just the poor and middle class.  In fact, according to the data below, we lag NJ and Clifton substantially in incomes over $100K and severely in incomes over $200K.

Source: 2007 Household Income,  US Census, American Factfinder

As you well know, our tax basis is strained by both a lack of property value (which is driven by incomes) and an over-demand for services (which is driven by low income).

Therefore, as politically incorrect as it may seem, we don’t need more $35K households with kids (who consume services such as schools), we need more wealthy $200K households with no kids.  Its these folks with lots of disposable income that keep restaurants, shops, arts institutions and other non-profits afloat.  There’s a reason Trenton has only one, sort of nice, restaurant.

Until we can admit to ourselves the simple truth of this math, we’ll continue roll around in the muck of being a poor city and a ward of the state.

Mr. Coston wondered, with the above analysis in hand

“If Trenton doesn’t actually have retail that would benefit from upper class residents, what’s the point?”

It’s true Trenton doesn’t have retail establishments (restaurants, shops, car dealerships) that cater to the middle or upper classes.

Dan’s counter-argument is as follows

It’s a chicken and egg.

I’ve long posited that in the urban revitalization chicken and egg contest, residential folks have to come first.  This is because both retail and commercial businesses make sounder economic decisions.  Will I find customers there?  Will I find skilled workers there or will my employees enjoy working there.

Residents have many more drivers many of which aren’t rational (some are).  For instance: “It’s near the train”,  “It’s inexpensive”,  “It’s near Aunt Mildred”,  “Other gay people live there”.

In a world where we have to make money bets and you can’t just say, “I’ll bet on both the chicken and the egg to come first”,  I bet on the resident.  I think you do too.  If that logic is true, then we need to bet on high income resident that drive new retail.

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Mr Coston also argued that we don’t need to worry about school aged children

“since Trenton doesn’t really pay for our own school costs then I shouldn’t worry about the mix of children and adults we attract to Trenton.”

Dan’s counter-argument on school cost is

We need to think about an  future Trenton that pays its fair share of school costs.  My central thesis is that we in Trenton should strive to pay our own way like most other cities. If we don’t, then our children’s education will be supported on the whim of state legislators.

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Mr Coston and Dan both want to see an analysis of disposable income by income range. It should show the impact of disposable income on retail vitality. We agreed that a better understanding of this dynamic would highlight the relative importance of attracting one income group over another to Trenton.

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With just a bit more effort I found the data that Jim and I were looking for. It’s at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

BLS takes survey data over a large population (these are US numbers) and breakdown spending by type.

• BLS tells us that higher income residents (>$150K) spend 5-7 times as much as lower / middle income (<$70K)
• The biggest differences are in important retail categories such as: restaurants, clothing stores, furniture, entertainment.
• Importantly, contributions are also about 7 times higher for the >$150K income range.

My central point in all of this is that retail spending is greatly affected by income level and in dramatic disproportion to the per capita cost of services.

Comparing the highest income bracket household (>$150K) to the lower end (<$70K):

• Higher income have twice as many children (.9 vs. .5)
• Higher income spend 4 times as much on non-grocery retail ($38.7K vs. $9.7K) retail sales translate into property tax of storefronts and quality of life.
• Higher income pay 5 times as much in property tax

Of course, Trenton population isn’t necessarily the same as the US.  If Trenton can target high income households without children we come out way ahead in terms of municipal and school budget impact.

There’s no reason to think Trenton can’t attract higher income residents without public school children

• I can tell you that of all the new Trenton Ferry residents (I can only guess at their incomes) none have children.
• The household size in relatively affluent Mill Hill (which is actually middle class)  is much lower than average Trenton (~2 vs. 2.75)  (2000 US Census)

Therefore targeting high(er) income in Trenton appears to pay off.

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