Rather my original argument parrots Candidate Marge Caldwell-Wilson’s comments yesterday from her announcement. Trenton’s per capita income is low and among the lowest in the state (there’s always Camden).

That needs to change in order to attract more retail. It’s a fundamental truth that a retail economy will be more stable when there’s more money to spend.

My suggestion therefore is for Trenton to focus it’s meager resources on addressing the impediments to residential immigration.

So while you say that an upscale chain is exactly what we need, given their generally quite stringent location criteria, it is clear (to me at least) that the odds are long on anyone delivering on that. We need to set our sights on what we can realistically attract and support.

The very same low barriers to market entry that allow inexperienced operators to set up shop (low cost of a liquor licenses, comparatively low rents) ought to be used to attract stronger, more experienced, albeit independent operators.

In talking to hospitality professionals, I have been told that visitors to a new city, while preferring to stay in a name brand hotel, generally want to try out local, non-chain restaurants. Its part of what marks a place as unique.

My answer to the rundown independents is to simply not patronize them, while definitely patronizing those that are making the best effort.

First, Trenton, with some 85,000 people, has the critical mass to support the retail segments I mentioned. Our community shopping centers don’t have significant vacancies. Within our neighborhood commercial districts, the vacant storefronts are a mix of buildings that require renovations costing more than market rents justify, or seedy environments that need concerted public/private partnerships to make them more appealing.

I’ll say it again- Trenton is not going to have upscale national retailers that have to draw from across a large regional market. Those stores will always locate near the highest income area in the region, knowing that the members of our Trenton community that can afford and want their merchandise will come to them. You say that Anne Taylor and Jos. Banks have urban formats? I say those are formats that work in first and second tier cities: NYC, Chicago, Philly. Those urban downtowns have a density of retail offerings that make them regional shopping centers (even though they don’t look like malls.) They cannot be equated to a small city like Trenton.

I’ll go even further and say that no New Jersey cities are large enough to support the upscale retailers you seem to want. The success that is downtown New Brunswick is the best example. It is comprised of eating and drinking establishments and local gift and novelty type shops. The New Jersey downtowns that have upscale national chains (think Princeton, Westfield) are known for their wealth.

You may see me as being very negative, but the truth is, my conclusion in this regard doesn’t disappoint me one bit. Those types of stores hold no appeal for me at all. I know where to find them if I need them, but would much prefer to see us nurture more unique retail offerings in our downtown.

As for your search for a formula to determine how many people are needed with how much disposable income to support a new restaurant or three? I am sure there are consultants that have crafted formulas of that sort. I think it is more art than science involved. New Brunswick during my college days looked nothing like it does now. Their restaurant cluster occurred because a small number of local entrepreneurs took a chance. I would bet that they based their investment more on their gut than on consultants’ market studies.

First came Tony Tola’s “Stuff Yer Face” on Easton Avenue, a quirky, casual, fun restaurant and bar that spurred the Momo brothers’ first restaurant, Teresa’s Pizza. Then others took over seedy storefronts along that street. About the same time, J. August’s opened in a small storefront, which was followed by the Frog and the Peach. Both of those restaurants, with success, (and some relocation payments) moved and renovated larger, grander buildings. Others came later. New Brunswick’s central business district now is a regional draw, serving as the downtown not just for New Brunswick, but also for much of Middlesex and southern Somerset Counties. I think that Trenton should play that role for Mercer, central Bucks and Northern Burlington Counties.

People in this region have plenty of chain stores and chain restaurants. We need to focus on attracting and then supporting the alternatives. We also need to support our existing establishments. Shop locally and I’ll see you around town!

Anne

The main thing I’d like to get a bead on is the formulation for “critical mass” necessary to support the types of retail you discuss.

I wonder if you have access to this kind of information.

In fact it was Alan Mallach who reminded me to think about this.

I suspect Trenton does not have a critical mass of disposable income to support the increase in retail investment you mention. I’d imagine you have this kind of discussion all the time.

My assumption would be that in order to support another restaurant we need x number of residents in the $150,000 – $200,000 income band, y in the $100,000 – $150,000 band and z in the $50,000 to $100,000 band.

The math should lead lead us to weight x, y and z differently because each band has a different level of disposable income. I did an article comparing retail spending in each band earlier this year.

My question is what is the formula? How much disposable income does it take to support a new clothing shop targeted to the middle class (e.g. Anne Taylor, or Jos. A Banks) both of whom have urban formats. How about a grocer? A movie theater? And on and on.

My assertion is that because we have very little retail we don’t have critical mass of disposable income. Certainly other small cities do.

Can you help put flesh on the discussion by pointing to these rules of thumb for locating a retail establishment in an area like Trenton?

I like simple, clear examples and arguments as much as the next guy but several important considerations don’t make it into the tight confines of your piece. I don’t pretend to respond to all of your points, but some thoughts:

The retail industry considers market segments – generally three: Neighborhood commercial shopping (think convenience stores, bodegas, hair salons, dry cleaners, drugstores), which can be walked to by very local customers. Next, Community shopping centers, usually anchored by a large grocery store, plus a mix of stores such as those we see in the Roebling Market and the Pennington Avenue Shopping Center. Community shopping centers typically draw customers from a 3 to 5 miles radius.

The third segment is regional shopping centers. For our region, examples would be Quakerbridge Mall, Nassau Park; you get the picture. This segment of the retail market can draw customers from a very large radius – 10 to 25 miles. Trenton is not going have this type regional shopping center. We don’t have the large sites that are required, nor do I think many Trentonians want the kind of displacement that big box retailers and chain department stores would necessitate. Further, nationally, chain stores are not locating in small urban centers and it is unrealistic to think that, in the face of national trends, something different will happen here in Trenton.

Each of our wards has one or more neighborhood shopping districts. I live in the South Ward and have noted two things. First, our neighborhood commercial districts could use some serious sprucing up along the lines of the “Main Street” Program, that was begun but then allowed to wither and die once Alan Mallach and his team left the City. Second, in spite of this neglect, small businesses have been opening up in empty storefronts where the condition of the buildings has allowed occupancy. That’s because these small local retailers are not confined by the stringent location criteria of a national chain retailer and they understand that we urban dwellers have disposable income.

While you want wealthier people to move into Trenton, I would be quite satisfied with a sprucing up of our neighborhood commercial districts and some guidance and incentives to help retailers improve their storefronts, signage, displays, etc. I live here now and would like some focus on this part of the quality of life equation, whether the new people you so anxiously await ever arrive or not.

I am not totally opposed to your desire to see upscale shopping in the Trenton. I think our regional draw should be our downtown, and we should work toward attracting unique, non-chain retailers, restaurants, nightclubs cafes, etc. to occupy our unique, historic buildings, which might serve to create a regional draw, for people inside and outside of Trenton who welcome relief from the chain store, chain restaurant suburban landscape.

I could go on and on – but just one last thought: the chicken and egg formulation, while simple to understand, is probably not all that helpful as we explore economic development strategies.

Anne