The State of Trenton – by the numbers

July 2012

Now that Mayor Mack’s future has become uncertain, to say the least, contenders are being bandied about.  I plan to be even tougher with this new crop of candidates than I was in 2010.  I’m tired of empty suits with empty ideas and empty promises fulfilling their ego at the people of Trenton’s expense.  I can’t afford it anymore.

This article is meant to establish a starting point for the candidates.  It represents our state as a city.  The candidates will do well to express their plans in terms of goals for each of these areas.

Reasonable people agree that the only way to achieve a goal is to set one.  Thus the conventional wisdom of “If you don’t know where you’re going, you’ll never get there”.

With this wisdom in mind, Fix Trenton’s Budget and Majority for a Better Trenton have identified five areas in which the City of Trenton should manage to measurable goals.

They are

  • Crime Index reduction
  • Population growth
  • School success
  • Average Income increase, and
  • Economic success (as measured by ratable)

Most Trentonians would agree that if we did better in these five areas our lives would be better.  However, try getting a politician to commit to a real goal for school success or average income.  It’s never happened, at least not in Trenton and definitely not in Mayor Mack’s biennial report on the state of the city.

Imagine if instead of listing the number of grants we applied for, the Mayor reported on his plan to increase ratables by 10% to $2.1B or decrease our Crime Index from 3400 to 2000.  You didn’t hear that because setting goals commits a politician to producing results and quite frankly, producing results is difficult.

That doesn’t mean the rest of us can’t have goals for our city and that we can’t force political action both at the ballot box and otherwise that will help us achieve them.

This report is meant to provide a status report on these five important measures thus setting the stage for efforts planned later in the year to set citizen goals for ourselves.

The current statistics are presented in order of importance.  Notice that our most important goals are those that improve the economic health of the city.  We can’t fix anything in Trenton unless we have a healthy economy.

Economic Success: D

In 2011 Trenton’s tax base,  that is, the value of property on which we can charge a property tax, was $2,009,731,470.  In 2012 it has declined to $1,961,049,170.  This represents a 2.4% loss in ratable for the city.

The implications of this statistic are large.  Our property tax rate will have to go up, again, in order to make up the difference.  It means our economy is getting worse instead of better and most importantly, it means that our policies meant to stimulate economic growth are not working.

We can never have a lower tax rate or afford to spend more money on parks, police and streets unless our ratables go up.

Average Income: F

Trenton’s Median Household  Income is $36,601; which stands in stark contrast to NJ’s Median household income which is almost double that of Trenton’s, $69,811.

Income levels are very important to the health of a city as they determine how much money residents will spend, which in turn, determines the attractiveness of our city to retailers and to entertainment producers.  While NJ’s household income is double that of Trenton’s, per capita retail spending is three times our rate.  This means that retail spending falls off disproportionately to income.

Making Trenton attractive to retail and entertainment business is important as the presence of those amenities make the city attractive to new residents.

School Success:  F

The Trenton school district’s 2011 graduation rate was 47.7%.  This means that over half of the students who entered 9th grade in 2007 graduated in 2011.

There is no world in which this is healthy.  While it can be argued that fixing the schools isn’t a pre-requisite for revitalizing the city, after all the easiest target market for new residents are the millions of people without kids, failing schools don’t help.

With 50% of our young adult population grossly undereducated, they immediately become a drain on the economic future of our city.  Furthermore, a significant portion of these kids will turn to crime and create both a public health threat to the rest of us and an expense in the form of police, courts and jails.

Moving this graduation rate up to 75% could theoretically halve our crime problem in the long run.

Population Growth :  C

Trenton’s 2010 census numbers report a population of 84,913.  Since 2000 our population has declined .6% while New Jersey’s has grown 4.5%.  Relative to our neighbors, Trenton has become a less desirable place to live.

It will take an influx of new residents to begin the process of rebuilding our tax base.  We have room to grow.  At its peak in the 1920s, Trenton housed 140,000 residents.

Crime: C

Trenton’s crime problems have tracked the national trend downwards over the last decade.  Uniform Crime Reports for 2011 show an increase in Index Crimes from to 3802 from 3744. That’s a 1.5% increase which shows we’re moving in the wrong direction by a bit.

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Our city leaders have abdicated their responsibility to set positive goals for the city.  Therefore it’s up to citizens to work together to set their own goals and to exert political force to make those goals stick and to construct a plan to meet them.

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12 Responses to “The State of Trenton – by the numbers”

  • Don Wallar:

    Thank you Dan. We owe you much for your time and effort to explain these facts of life to us.
    I sincerely hope our readers understand that your factual analysis is nothing, unless they Buy In, and commit themselves to making it happen. Every Trentonian must vote for capable, honest, champion candidates for City offices, who subscribe to these basic management principles.

  • Carlos Avila:

    Well put Dan. Increasing ratables and an ambitious yet realistic goal to reduce crime I think are paramount for Trenton to move forward. I also think it is important to note that these goals may not come to realization in one term but certainly getting on a path to accomplishing them would be an important step forward.

    In addition, to reach these goals will require a devoted and competent city council and administration. Hence, the real challenge, as Don mentioned, is to educate the 13k or so voters that usually exercise that right, to vote for substance over suits. That my friend is the first challenge. I look forward to working with MFABT to help pave the way for a better Trenton. Thanks for your time.

  • GALE RIDER:

    TRENTON IS AMAZSING IF YOU MAKE IT! PEOLE WOULD COME ,ONLY IF YOU CLAIM TO BE WHO THE TOWN WAS, BACK THAN. I KNOW TIMES HAVE CHANGED! I WOULD NEVER THINK APERSON THAT GREW UP IN A TOWN WOULD TEAR IT DOWN EVEN MORE! THERE’S NOTHING TO DO IN TRENTON,FOR KIDS OR GROWN UP’S. NO DOWNTOWN TO TAKE A NICE WALK. EVERYTHING IS CLOED EARLY. I AM FROM UP NORTH, I HAVE BEEN HERE FOR 6YRS. THE PEOPLE OF TRENTON NEED TO COME TOGETHER AND MAKE TRENTON A HAPPENING,SAFE&ENJOYABLE PLACE TO BE.THIS COULD BE A GREAT PLACE TO LIVE, ONLY IF YOU GET THE RIGHT PERSON TO STAND UP FOR TRENTON.
    WHAT MAKE MY MAD IS THAT NOTHING FOR THE KIDS! THAT SICKENS ME.WHAT ARE WE GIVEING TO THE KIDS,AS IN A LIFE AND TO STAY WERE YOU COME FROM TO MAKE IT BEFORE FOR EVERYONE. THANK YOU.

  • As a note on education, the published graduation numbers are skewed.

    According to the NJ Department of Ed, Trenton High’s main campus has a graduation rate of 54.8% and Trenton High West’s graduation rate is 71.3%. Both still disappointingly low, but, as a district, that would give us a graduation rate of 63.1%.

    What messes up the data is Daylight/Twilight’s reported graduation rate of 12.9%. Daylight/Twilight should not be included in this computation as it is not a traditional high school. It only takes students who are at least 16, are already not on pace to graduate from our other high schools, and has students of a variety of ages–some of whom only need to return to school for a short amount of time to graduate.

    The way graduation rates are computed, you begin with 9th graders as your base and then track individual students who graduate four years later while accounting for students who transferred, emigrated, or died in addition to those who have officially dropped out (stopped attending school for the requisite number of days as determined by law).

    Daylight/Twilight doesn’t have a traditional 9th grade.

    It doesn’t have a traditional instructional cycle, class schedule, hours, etc. for that manner.

    http://daylightblogs.org/dthsnj/sample-page/who-we-are/

  • Thanks for this.

    I assume you’re commenting on the NEW Dept. of Ed method for calculating the graduation rate.

    As for whether Daylight / Twilight being in the calculation. I wonder about that.

    My big objective here is to have a set of numbers that we as citizens can measure ourselves and our government by. Perhaps you can be in charge of the education number.

    Remember that Daylight / Twilight out to HELP the overall rate if computed based on students entering 9th grade. It’s a second chance school so every student graduating should help the overall rate.

    Perhaps you can untangle this so we can have a sensible and reportable single number for Trenton.

  • patricia stewart:

    Ms. Rider: There are many things for kids to do. All they have to do is look around – perhaps their parents should encourage them. This theory of the public should keep kids busy only gives them idea that someone else must ALWAYS keep them interested and amused. I, for one, am tired of looking after other people’s kids. If they want something to do, READ A BOOK!

  • J Thomas:

    I’m new to the area and have been reading this blog as I try to decide whether living in Trenton is even a possibility. While I think the benchmarks you spell out are right on the money in terms of the long-term revitalization of the entire city, when people like me decide whether or not to move to a city like Trenton they are concerned not just with system-wide numbers, but also with individual neighborhoods. How safe is my neighborhood? What is the quality of my neighborhood’s school? What retail opportunities are near my home? This mindset explains why a place like Brooklyn – which, borough-wide has a relatively low median income, poor schools, and limited retail – can turn around based on the strength of a handful of fashionable neighborhoods. People move to Park Slope and revitalization eventually spreads to the surrounding neighborhoods. In Trenton’s case, if neighborhoods like Mill Hill and downtown can become attractive options, then a similar process could take place. Based on what I’ve seen, Mill Hill/downtown isn’t yet there and the city’s leadership doesn’t seem interested in helping it get there. I’d move to Mill Hill in a heartbeat if I had the sense that they were.

  • Yep, this is the sad truth. There are people who say it will take years for Trenton to turn around.

    Those people are either making excuses or don’t understand what you’ve pointed out.

    Trenton can turn on a dime.

    Hiltonia, Berkely Square and Cadwalader Heights in Trenton have some of the best housing stock in the region and also a great neighborhood feel. The neighbors do things together.

    Mill Hill is THE most active neighborhood in Trenton and has the advantage of location.

    However, it is true that we spend our time working against a government that’s afraid to stimulate these neighborhoods either because of indifference, inability or fear of offending others. What our political class can’t get through their thick skulls is that 1) value creation where its easiest to do drive revenue, 2) revitalization spills over into other areas.

  • J Thomas:

    It’s too bad. I really want to like Trenton. On the surface Mill Hill is the ideal neighborhood for us – gorgeous housing, good transit options, walkable, etc. My wife and I have lived in many economically and racially diverse neighborhoods in our life (she grew up in NYC in the 70s and be both live in a part of Brooklyn that only recently became fashionable) and are comfortable with the challenges of living in an urban environment. And we would be part of the turn around – with 2 Ph.D.s, an income well above your $200k house threshold that allows for discretionary spending in the neighborhood, and an ability to convince our students (at Princeton and Columbia) to volunteer in, and potentially even move to, the community, we’d help move the metrics you cite.

    But I have to say when we visited Mill Hill we really didn’t see that community feel. Maybe we came at a bad time (Saturday around noon, and two days after the FBI raided city hall). But the park was empty save for a homeless man. The streets were empty save for a couple of interesting characters who seemed to just be passing through. And Broad Street lacked the street life we expected from the primary commercial district in the neighborhood. We didn’t feel unsafe – but we did stand out like a sore thumb. My wife was so put off that we cancelled our appointment with a real estate agent the next day (and she went to high school in Ft. Greene in Brooklyn when it was surrounded by crack houses!) We did enjoy Trenton Social, which seemed to function as one of the few hubs for a range of people from the area. If the rest of the neighborhood had that feel in terms of street life, we’d probably move there. We even have a house picked out.

    I still keep Trenton as a possibility and will keep following this blog. Keep up the good work!

  • Patricia Stewart:

    Dear J Thomas: As a former New Yorker (I grew up on Long Island), I thought I would answer your comments. Mill Hill is a very close neighborhood. The civic association is one of strongest (and richest) here in Trenton. The residents (most of whom have beautiful gardens) were either enjoying their gardens which are in the back or running errands. No, there isn’t much street activity. The residents do a lot of socializing among themselves, but in their gardens or in their houses. The section of Broad Street by Mill Hill is taken up with the two (about to be three) court houses. From Monday to Friday there is a lot of street activity. Too bad you missed the garden tour last June. Many of the residents are very active in public affairs. And in fairness, if the residents of Mill Hill are at the Social (and several were on Friday evening), they cannot be outside their houses. The owner of the Social lives in Mill Hill. I urge you to reconsider. In closing, I do not live in Mill Hill, but I interact quite often with several who do.

  • J Thomas:

    Thanks, Patricia. I was there, briefly on my own, on a Thursday after work and there seemed to be more street life then. It was a nice mix of people chatting outside their homes. It felt like a close community in a way that my current neighborhood in Princeton does not. I guess I was just surprised at how isolated it seemed on a weekend. I will definitely check it out again (I’m still working on the wife). The neighborhood seems to have plenty of champions who all attest to the closeness of the community. That is something that really attracts me and, to bring it back to Dan’s original point, is often the starting point for city-wide turnarounds. Places like Bed-Stuy and Harlem are where they are today thanks to the old-timers who stayed and vigilantly maintained their blocks so that even during the bad times they were safe havens.

  • patricia stewart:

    If your wife is looking for Brooklyn, she will not find it in Mill Hill. Since I don’t really know Brooklyn that well, I would compare Mill Hill to Forest Hills Gardens.

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